Paranting Explainers | What is going on in Ukraine?
Not now Russia. Leave it alone.
UPDATE 24th February 2022:
This post was written on 28th January 2022, all information correct at the time of posting. There is now a de-facto invasion of Ukraine taking place by Russian military forces, heavily reported in all media. While this conflict is occurring we are making this post free access to all — we can’t cover the invasion in as much detail as better funded media, but we can offer an understandable guide to why this might be happening. We send solidarity to Ukrainians around the world and in the UK, and hope for a peaceful end to the violence.
Words: Felice Southwell. Images: iStock.
You might have seen some alarming news coming out of Eastern Europe and Russia over the last couple of weeks.
The concerning, ongoing situation of Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border is the latest in a history of incursions between Putin and Ukraine.
On Google, searches for “Ukraine war” have risen in the last 24 hours.
We’ll take you through the latest developments as well as the ideological, political and economic factors as well as answer why Russia might consider military action now.
What is the latest?
Although Russia denies it’s planning any invasion, there is evidence that an estimated 100,000 Russian troops are deployed near its borders with Ukraine, according to BBC News.
Russian tanks and troops are also in neighbouring Belarus for exercises.
The US says Russia has offered no explanation for these deployments.
Russia has also handed out 500,000 passports in rebel-run areas of Ukraine, reports going back to 2019.
It’s been suggested that this could be a plan to justify any future incursion into Ukraine under the guise of protecting Russian citizens.
Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, wants European countries involved in an international summit to resolve the tensions—not just Russia and the US.
Meanwhile, the US has put 8,500 troops on alert for short-notice deployment with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries in Eastern Europe.
The Russian passport used for international travel.
Does Putin want to make Ukraine part of Russia?
There are different reasons why tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been high in recent years: ideological, political and economic.
Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has previously called Russia and Ukraine “one nation” in speeches. This shows his ideological thinking of ex-Soviet Union nations as part of “historical Russia”.
Even though Ukrainians parted ways with Russia linguistically, historically and politically, Putin’s ideology was supported by Ukrainian rebels who still held the belief that the independent nation should be part of Russia.
Russia backed these rebels, sometimes referred to as separatists, in Crimea which was formerly part of Ukraine.
After Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian leader in a revolution in 2014, Russia argued that it had a historic claim to Crimea.
Russia took advantage of the chaos and Crimea was annexed in 2014, meaning that Russia sent troops to occupy it and support the separatists.
This led to the death penalty being restored in Crimea, as well as dissidents being tortured and executed in concentration camps.
Credit: Felice Southwell
Why is NATO involved?
After Ukraine went through its revolution against the pro-Moscow president in 2014, it wanted to become a part of NATO and the European Union.
As a recognised prospective member of NATO, Ukraine has been building up its military capacity in order to qualify for membership. It is much stronger than it was when it fought Russia in 2014.
NATO has refused to promise Putin that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO.
US Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman, said: "We will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO's open-door policy."
Coupled with the context of Putin’s ideology, this explains why the possibility of a NATO-empowered Ukraine, allied with the US, is a concerning concept for the Russian President.
The Ukrainian military on parade in 2021.
Isn’t war all about money and oil?
There are always economic reasons for military interventions and the situation between Russia and Ukraine is no different.
Putin has desperately sought for Ukraine to become a member of the Moscow-dominated free-trade bloc, the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) because Ukraine has a powerful agricultural output.
However, Ukraine has refused to join the EAEC and has opted instead for potential membership to the European Union, which is another kick in the teeth for Putin.
Oil and gas are also concerned because of a threat made by Germany and the US which concerns a Russian gas pipeline—the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.
The pipeline is designed to improve gas availability in Eastern Europe and double Russia’s output of gas to Germany.
However, Germany and the US have warned that if Russia does invade Ukraine, they could target the pipeline in retaliation - they haven’t said how.
Although this would mainly affect gas prices for Germany, we might feel a knock-on effect from this in the UK.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss outside NATO on Monday. Credit: Simon Dawson / Flickr.
Why is this happening now?
One reason why the ideological, political and economic tensions seem to be boiling to a head now is because of Putin's approval ratings.
Russians are resisting vaccinations, and are suffering economic hardships brought on by the pandemic. This is negatively affecting Putin’s popularity as President.
After the annexing of Crimea, approval ratings in the Kremlin rose to almost 90%.
A new war or military escalation could provide exactly the distraction from domestic issues that Putin needs to regain popularity.
Also, Russian military tactics have been used historically to open up conversations with the West.
Putin had his first face-to-face meeting with US President Joe Biden after he moved troops next to Ukraine last spring.
The latest deployment of troops near Ukraine has also opened dialogue with other countries, with Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, urging Putin to stand down the troops.
She said: "We are urging Russia to desist from an incursion and we're making it very clear that if they were to do that there would be severe economic cost to Russia—severe sanctions."
According to Truss, the UK is also supplying defensive weapons and economic support to Ukraine.
The Paranting Conclusion
It seems rather foreboding to offer any prediction after an assessment of the situation, as most of us remember earlier Russian invasions of Eastern European countries.
It is capable of it, and the ideological reasoning that drives Putin represents a strong factor in Russia’s military decisions.
No one wants to disregard the seriousness of the situation after Crimeans have been tortured and killed since 2014.
Ukrainians won’t need our speculation—they’ll need our support, which is best offered by keeping updated with knowledge of the situation and acting within our own capacities as UK citizens to ensure the Government hears our voices.
Write to your MP explaining your considerations, sign petitions you agree with, and participate in democracy to show Ukraine that democratic society is standing in solidarity with them.
If you want to read more on the subject and keep informed, we recommend these pages: